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2024

538 2024 Demographic Model

538 2024 Demographic Model. From 75 days out — around when we relaunched our 2024 forecast — to election day, the expected change in margin is closer to 6 points. Harris wins 58 times out of 100.


538 2024 Demographic Model

It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. We hope you’ll use it to check our work and to create stories and visualizations of your own.

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